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“Part of the reason is economics. When games take months and significant money to develop, people naturally become risk-averse. Building on something that already works becomes the safer option.”

For Curwen, tackling the problem therefore means changing the risk-reward equation behind game creation. If creators can develop and test ideas more quickly and at significantly lower cost, an unsuccessful experiment becomes less consequential – and taking a chance on something genuinely different becomes easier to justify.

“Technology changes the equation,” he says. “If we can make development faster and significantly more cost-efficient, creators can afford to experiment again.

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Santos’ case represents the most severe among four disciplinary settlements announced by Kalshi, which has faced increasing scrutiny concerning insider knowledge risks and event outcome influence by market participants.

Santos is not the only individual disciplined for trying to game the prediction market system. Ben Midgley, a Republican candidate for the governorship of Maine, admitted purchasing under $1,000 worth of contracts related to his campaign. He accepted a $5,434.30 fine and a three-year suspension.

Meanwhile, Laurie Buckhout, a candidate for a North Carolina congressional seat, was fined $2,589.96 and suspended for three years after buying under $1,000 of contracts linked to her race.

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Scotts Valley has maintained that federal officials reversed course under intense political pressure from the Yocha Dehe Wintun Nation, a neighboring tribe that opposes the Vallejo casino development.

During Friday’s hearing, McFadden appeared skeptical that Scotts Valley had met the rigorous legal standard required to demonstrate irreparable harm. He has not yet issued a ruling on the preliminary injunction request.

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