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A quarter of respondents said they use both prediction markets and sportsbooks depending on the event they’re considering wagering on. While the 35% reduced use figure may sound like a warning shot to gaming companies, a variety of other studies and surveys indicate that when bettors can choose between a sportsbook and an all-or-nothing exchange, they frequently opt for the former.
While sports event contracts are currently the tentpole category for the prediction market industry, data indicate bettors and traders are embracing other categories.
Fullstory points out that while 62% of consumers have dabbled in sports event contracts, 42% traded economic or financial derivatives on a prediction market while a comparable percentage transacted in an election or political event contract. More than a quarter traded at least one entertainment or pop culture derivative.
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In fact, behind those brands, a whole new sector is taking shape. Data and streaming suppliers, specialist market makers and technology companies are quickly invading the space.
The investment banking and capital markets firm Jefferies said in a September report that sports had become prediction markets’ “most important liquidity driver”, with combo and parlay-style contracts accounting for an increasing share of activity. But the analysts cautioned that prediction markets are scale businesses with relatively low revenue yields, leaving their economics dependent on sustained liquidity, engagement and trading activity.
James Monk, founder of sports data and streaming provider Catalist Sports, has witnessed that dependence directly. Catalist supplies ITF tennis data to Kalshi and Polymarket and has an exclusive US sports-streaming agreement with Kalshi.